Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94dc…5e19 crypto 1857 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$140 (-2%) realized −$131 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate72%1332W / 520L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day94.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 707 -3.5% -12.7% 55% 42% -10.4%
≤30d 1852 -2.1% -11.5% 72% 43% -10.9%
≤90d 1852 -2.1% -11.5% 72% 43% -10.9%
all 1852 -2.1% -11.5% 72% 43% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 43% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 28% -19.4%
15% -27.7% 19% -27.2%
20% -34.8% 13% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1332 / 520
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1852 / 1857
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day94.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1852 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 30¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$11 +208%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.83 · official $9.78 · 3500 history records