Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

94 0x94da…2f1e other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$92 (-37%) realized −$92 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%2W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-54.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-64.3%	-67.7%	20%	20%	-21.6%
≤30d	7	-74.5%	-76.9%	14%	14%	-49.8%
≤90d	16	-49.5%	-54.3%	12%	12%	-59.2%
all	16	-49.5%	-54.3%	12%	12%	-59.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.3%	12%	-59.2%
10%	-58.7%	12%	-63.1%
15%	-62.7%	12%	-66.7%
20%	-66.3%	12%	-69.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -50% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -21% → late -78% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.31 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage

Net worth$70

Realized−$92

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses2 / 14

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)16 / 19

History coverage46d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	59¢	60¢	$30	$31	+$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-4%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score	Yes	45¢	48¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France?	Jun 26	$10	−$9	-91%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-97%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$30	+$21	+70%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$14	−$14	-97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$21	−$20	-97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?	May 12	$30	−$29	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	May 12	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	May 12	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	May 12	$5	−$5	-100%
Thunder vs. Lakers	May 12	$11	−$11	-98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	May 12	$1	−$1	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	May 12	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	May 12	$4	+$20	+529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	May 12	$5	−$5	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina?	BUY Yes	14¢	$31	1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$30	1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$52	3h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	4h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	4h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	4h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	27d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	27d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	27d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?	BUY Yes	46¢	$30	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$5	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$5	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$5	45d
Thunder vs. Lakers	BUY Lakers	1¢	$1	45d
Thunder vs. Lakers	BUY Lakers	18¢	$10	45d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	BUY Pistons	1¢	$1	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$5	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$4	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$5	45d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.25 · official $70.25 (match) · 27 history records