Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
94 0x94d9…7fc2 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$635 (-10%) realized −$630 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$694per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$333
7 days+$335
14 days+$335
30 days+$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$667
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.6% +10.0% 100% 100% +6.9%
≤30d 4 +21.6% +10.0% 100% 100% +6.9%
≤90d 8 +1.9% -7.8% 75% 75% -19.6%
all 8 +1.9% -7.8% 75% 75% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 75% -19.6%
10% -16.6% 50% -27.3%
15% -24.7% 25% -34.3%
20% -32.1% 12% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$1,131 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$630
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage81d
Avg bet$694
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? No 83¢ 81¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,411 +$234 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $229 +$55 +24%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $992 −$981 -99%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $700 +$300 +43%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $1,122 +$965 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 83¢ $302 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $545 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $47 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $317 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 41h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $108 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $109 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 2d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 72d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $992 76d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 47¢ $80 77d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,200 77d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $148 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $75 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $189 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.54 · official $309.04 · 45 history records