Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94d8…ccf3 crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$35 (-8%) realized −$55 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$36
other 23% +$20
sports 12% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 28 -8.0% -16.8% 57% 46% -21.7%
≤90d 28 -8.0% -16.8% 57% 46% -21.7%
all 28 -8.0% -16.8% 57% 46% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 46% -21.7%
10% -24.7% 25% -29.2%
15% -32.0% 21% -36.0%
20% -38.7% 14% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage30d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $104 $123 +$20 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo Jun 02 $47 −$18 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 01 $28 +$6 +21%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 18 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 18 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 18 $26 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 18 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 18 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 18 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 18 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 18 $25 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 18 $21 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $104 1h
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo SELL Marko Topo 100¢ $0 15d
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo BUY Lorenzo Giustino 30¢ $13 15d
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo SELL Marko Topo 66¢ $14 15d
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo BUY Marko Topo 70¢ $15 15d
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo SELL Lorenzo Giustino 48¢ $15 15d
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo BUY Lorenzo Giustino 57¢ $18 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $14 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $15 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $20 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $14 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $14 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.18 · official $123.18 (match) · 99 history records