Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
94 0x94d4…2c98 world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate47%41W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$18
14 days−$25
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$3
other 23% −$7
sports 15% −$46
politics 14% −$5
weather 3% −$21
finance 2% +$27
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 12% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 31 -0.8% -10.3% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 48 +1.7% -8.0% 42% 6% -9.6%
all 88 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 11% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 8% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 6% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses41 / 47
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage536d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $266 −$12 -5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $9 $0 -5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $148 −$2 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $113 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $48 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $250 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $186 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $197 −$4 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $75 −$3 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $178 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $130 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $361 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $106 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $114 +$5 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $124 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $113 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $337 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $129 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $125 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $122 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $207 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $253 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $64 −$3 -4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $229 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $25 +$24 +97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $24 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $91 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $89 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $202 +$1 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $224 −$46 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $132 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $51 +$6 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $219 +$27 +12%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $273 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $744 −$3 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $243 +$1 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $117 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $672 +$1 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $58 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $62 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $83 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $17 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $83 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $17 25h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $110 28h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $110 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 40h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $79 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $22 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $38 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $37 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $25 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $32 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 96¢ $78 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 96¢ $34 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 379 history records