Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94d4…9092 other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 37L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$5
politics 28% −$7
world 14% −$2
sports 7% −$2
culture 7% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
tech 5% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 38 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$754) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage88d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $958 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $980 −$2 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 27 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 27 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $975 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 16 $731 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 16 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $731 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series Apr 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Dee Valladares win Survivor Season 50? Apr 14 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 14 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 09 $176 $0 -0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 05 $180 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? Apr 01 $183 $0 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 25m
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 32m
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 41m
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $971 47m
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 55m
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $956 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $946 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $716 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $980 2h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $79 16h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,003 16h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $26 16h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $992 16h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $24 16h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,050 17h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $29 17h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,016 17h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 17h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $748 17h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $35 17h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $252 17h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,002 18h
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 37h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $46 37h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $15 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records