Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94d3…e394 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,276 (-15%) realized −$3,276 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,039per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,093
7 days−$3,569
14 days−$4,335
30 days−$4,517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$4,086
world 8% −$1,108
politics 4% +$676
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.9% -13.9% 55% 55% -26.6%
≤30d 21 -4.9% -13.9% 48% 48% -28.3%
≤90d 21 -4.9% -13.9% 48% 48% -28.3%
all 21 -4.9% -13.9% 48% 48% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 48% -28.3%
10% -22.2% 29% -35.1%
15% -29.7% 24% -41.4%
20% -36.6% 14% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,587) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$294 vs −$678 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,276
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,039
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3,213 −$1,044 -32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,421 −$2,144 -63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,301 +$1,099 +48%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $93 −$4 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,225 −$1,430 -64%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,851 +$288 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,587 +$303 +19%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 18 $533 +$493 +92%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,531 −$1,520 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,242 +$212 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $969 +$179 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $271 +$129 +48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $998 −$998 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $240 −$40 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$40 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $264 −$30 -11%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $236 +$164 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $203 −$2 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $209 +$51 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 08 $209 −$206 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 08 $40 +$24 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,811 24m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 24m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 24m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 24m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 24m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $188 24m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $100 24m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 24m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $3,213 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 31¢ $1,263 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $3,421 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,301 42h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $89 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 24¢ $794 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,225 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,622 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $30 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $175 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $46 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $102 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $148 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,851 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $271 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,619 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,587 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records