Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94cf…383a crypto 319 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$162 (-6%) realized −$170 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%179W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$204
other 3% $0
politics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -9.0% -17.7% 74% 40% -9.5%
≤30d 94 -9.0% -17.7% 74% 40% -9.5%
≤90d 316 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 41% -16.8%
all 316 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 41% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 41% -16.8%
10% -27.4% 26% -24.7%
15% -34.4% 17% -32.0%
20% -40.9% 11% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses179 / 137
Open positions3
Markets (closed)316 / 319
History coverage56d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 71¢ 84¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 0¢ 80¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 79¢ 50¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $12 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 24m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $13 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 30m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $6 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $9 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 54m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.60 · official $20.58 · 827 history records