Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94ce…edf2 crypto 1130 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,068 (-4%) realized −$2,065 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%261W / 985L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$650
7 days−$781
14 days−$719
30 days−$1,367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 20% −$248
politics 20% +$436
other 17% −$305
world 17% −$577
sports 16% −$206
weather 5% −$91
tech 2% −$18
finance 2% −$87
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -55.0% -59.3% 5% 5% -14.5%
≤30d 673 -28.6% -35.4% 20% 19% -14.0%
≤90d 1246 -25.8% -32.9% 21% 20% -12.8%
all 1246 -25.8% -32.9% 21% 20% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.9% 20% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -39.3% 18% -21.2%
15% -45.2% 17% -28.8%
20% -50.5% 16% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$2,065
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses261 / 985
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1246 / 1130
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+130%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on June 19? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$4 -145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 12? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 47m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $9 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl SELL Yes 66¢ $131 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $8 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? SELL No 5¢ $2 6h
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? BUY No 5¢ $3 6h
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 6h
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 6h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA SELL Yes 15¢ $7 6h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World C SELL Yes 92¢ $17 6h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl SELL Yes 63¢ $62 6h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 82¢ $41 7h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 83¢ $42 7h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA BUY Yes 17¢ $8 8h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 89¢ $89 8h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 90¢ $90 8h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World C BUY Yes 92¢ $17 8h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA SELL Yes 96¢ $48 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.24 · official $9.26 (match) · 3500 history records