Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94cd…e6ef sports 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%22W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$6
other 26% −$5
politics 24% −$2
world 7% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
economics 5% $0
culture 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 -1.4% -10.7% 25% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 174 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses22 / 152
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage161d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 26 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 18 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $247 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $75 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 11 $52 $0 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $287 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 07 $144 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $150 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 04 $164 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $144 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 03 $116 +$1 +1%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $86 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $220 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 30 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $120 −$1 -1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 27 $45 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 27 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $30 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $10 5h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $26 12d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $26 12d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $44 19d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $45 19d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 89¢ $50 27d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 91¢ $51 28d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 63d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 63d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $40 63d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $40 63d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 63d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 64d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $45 64d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $45 64d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 95¢ $52 64d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $52 64d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 64d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 64d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $45 64d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $45 65d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $41 65d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $41 65d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $54 65d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $54 65d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $52 65d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 66d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $44 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 600 history records