trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $2,031 | $2,030 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 52¢ | 65¢ | $933 | $1,167 | +$233 (+25%) |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 58¢ | $500 | $585 | +$85 (+17%) |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 42¢ | $500 | $415 | −$85 (-17%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 99¢ | $244 | $244 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $92 | $92 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 93¢ | 0¢ | $60 | $0 | −$60 (-100%) |
| Will Oracle be the most valuable company on October 31? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Apr 29 | $329 | −$46 | -14% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun | Apr 29 | $419 | −$52 | -12% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | Apr 28 | $349 | −$121 | -35% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 28 | $2,474 | −$83 | -3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Apr 28 | $2,100 | −$245 | -12% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 28 | $140 | +$2 | +1% |
| Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Apr 28 | $565 | +$9 | +2% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? | Apr 10 | $24 | −$4 | -18% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? | Apr 10 | $500 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? | Mar 29 | $26 | −$7 | -25% |
| Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 29 | $35 | −$9 | -25% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Mar 27 | $291 | +$9 | +3% |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | Mar 27 | $265 | +$51 | +19% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Mar 27 | $375 | +$34 | +9% |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Jan 28 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | Jan 28 | $285 | +$14 | +5% |
| Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? | Dec 03 | $51 | +$3 | +5% |
| Will Oracle be the most valuable company on October 31? | Oct 12 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31? | Oct 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 14 | -7.9% | -16.6% | 43% | 7% | -14.8% |
| all | 19 | -21.1% | -28.6% | 42% | 5% | -15.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.6% | 5% | -15.1% |
| 10% | -35.4% | 0% | -23.2% |
| 15% | -41.6% | 0% | -30.7% |
| 20% | -47.4% | 0% | -37.5% |