Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:18:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94cb…ad12 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$151 (-5%) realized −$166 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$189
sports 31% +$15
crypto 6% +$60
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -22.9% -30.3% 33% 30% -14.4%
≤30d 33 -22.9% -30.3% 33% 30% -14.4%
≤90d 33 -22.9% -30.3% 33% 30% -14.4%
all 33 -22.9% -30.3% 33% 30% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 30% -14.4%
10% -36.9% 24% -22.6%
15% -43.0% 21% -30.1%
20% -48.6% 18% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$31 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage6d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$53 +105%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$69 +226%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$35 +68%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 +$55 +61%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $169 −$103 -61%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $321 +$19 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $340 +$101 +30%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $281 +$53 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $381 −$284 -75%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$11 -21%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 +$21 +20%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$8 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$41 +54%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Portugal win the World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -47%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$47 +46%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 16 $15 −$6 -36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$4 -16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $86 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $85 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $147 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $91 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $97 11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $143 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $47 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $340 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $321 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $441 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $340 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $335 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $281 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.68 · official $264.68 (match) · 79 history records