Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94cb…64e3 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$102 (+3%) realized −$296 · open +$398
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$123
sports 46% +$376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -11.9% -20.3% 30% 30% -3.6%
≤30d 20 -11.9% -20.3% 30% 30% -3.6%
≤90d 20 -11.9% -20.3% 30% 30% -3.6%
all 20 -11.9% -20.3% 30% 30% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 30% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 30% -12.8%
15% -34.9% 25% -21.2%
20% -41.2% 20% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$72 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2,861
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$398
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions14
Markets (closed)20 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 62¢ 62¢ $620 $615 −$5 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 86¢ $209 $605 +$396 (+190%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 50¢ $510 $505 −$5 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 40¢ $480 $480 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $112 $121 +$9 (+8%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 56¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 18¢ $91 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Under 31¢ 30¢ $93 $88 −$4 (-5%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 17¢ 18¢ $85 $87 +$2 (+3%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Under 25¢ 24¢ $75 $70 −$4 (-6%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 30¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $21 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Spread: France (-3.5) France 14¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 18¢ 19¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $102 +$48 +47%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $87 +$213 +245%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $13 +$4 +32%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $102 +$68 +67%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $104 +$296 +285%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $96 −$96 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $99 −$85 -86%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 26 $112 −$112 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $102 +$486 +474%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $37 −$36 -97%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $42 40m
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $11 40m
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $2 46m
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 50m
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 57m
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $1 57m
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $320 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $0 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $32 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $0 2h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $517 2h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $15 2h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $66 2h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 62¢ $618 2h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $15 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $85 2h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $13 2h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 62¢ $2 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $6 16h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $8 16h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $12 16h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $41 16h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $41 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,860.70 · official $2,846.70 (match) · 117 history records