Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94cb…3827 sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$248 (-32%) realized −$245 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%43W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$74
other 29% −$67
crypto 26% −$90
culture 4% −$3
world 3% −$14
politics 3% +$10
tech 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +93.5% +75.1% 45% 40% -17.1%
≤30d 21 +91.4% +73.2% 48% 43% -13.6%
≤90d 91 -4.1% -13.2% 47% 36% -40.3%
all 91 -4.1% -13.2% 47% 36% -40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 36% -40.3%
10% -21.5% 31% -46.1%
15% -29.1% 20% -51.3%
20% -36.0% 14% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$245
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)91 / 97
History coverage62d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +318%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +306%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$17 +1637%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Shymkent 2: Alexandr Binda vs Manoj Dhamne Manas May 01 $5 +$1 +17%
Shymkent 2: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Andrej Nedic May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $1 $0 +8%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 30 $10 +$1 +8%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $5 +$1 +29%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $5 +$1 +27%
Saint-Malo: Moyuka Uchijima vs Lucie Nguyen Tan Apr 29 $5 $0 +7%
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Jie Cui Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Aix en Provence: Grigor Dimitrov vs Pol Martin Tiffon Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Jiujiang: Andre Ilagan vs James McCabe Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during April press conference? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Reign Above (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leagu Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Huzhou: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Katarzyna Kawa Apr 29 $5 +$1 +18%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $5 $0 +8%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Mauthausen: Francesco Maestrelli vs Miguel Damas Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: regain vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - ESL Challenger League N Apr 29 $10 +$1 +14%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $25 +$9 +35%
La Bisbal: Varvara Lepchenko vs Laura Pigossi Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 5h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 6h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 15h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 15h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.70 · official $45.70 (match) · 186 history records