Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94c5…0bef sports 15 markets active 3h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$598 (-1%) realized −$450 · open −$148
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,963per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$293est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4,503
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$812
crypto 1% $0
other 0% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +7.2% -3.0% 80% 80% -22.2%
≤90d 14 +20.6% +9.1% 93% 64% -11.2%
all 14 +20.6% +9.1% 93% 64% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.1% 64% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -1.3% 50% -19.7%
15% -10.9% 50% -27.4%
20% -19.6% 14% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$745 vs −$10,500 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$450
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Est. fees paid−$293
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage49d
Avg bet$2,963
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 56¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 21 $10,530 −$10,500 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 21 $8,789 +$1,872 +21%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $7,282 +$1,449 +20%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 19 $4,985 +$2,352 +47%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 17 $678 +$324 +48%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $989 +$452 +46%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $2,502 +$75 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 13? May 15 $482 $0 +0%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $1,505 +$569 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $2,203 +$1,366 +62%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $1,414 +$676 +48%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 01 $991 +$541 +55%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $972 +$2 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $979 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $150 2h
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $803 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $46 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $150 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $4,665 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $60 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $26 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $86 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $15 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $26 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $28 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $86 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $128 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $30 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $26 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $90 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $15 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $75 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $28 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $30 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $90 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $26 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $28 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $3,972 25d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 82¢ $8,789 27d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor BUY Hanwha Life Esports 83¢ $7,282 27d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea BUY Nongshim Red Force 67¢ $4,985 28d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 67¢ $678 29d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 97¢ $2,502 30d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 68¢ $989 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 52 history records