trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 67% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 24 | -4.0% | -13.2% | 12% | 4% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.2% | 4% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -21.5% | 4% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -29.1% | 4% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -36.0% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 15 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 23? | May 26 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 15? | Apr 22 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 14 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Feb 28 | $3 | +$1 | +43% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? | Jan 19 | $1 | $0 | -36% |
| Pacers vs. Pistons | Jan 17 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 17 | $338 | $0 | -0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Jan 17 | $323 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Jan 16 | $316 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA? | Jan 16 | $331 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 15 | $359 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 15 | $351 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jan 14 | $366 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 14 | $328 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 13 | $361 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Jan 13 | $376 | −$6 | -2% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Jan 13 | $315 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 12 | $352 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jan 12 | $322 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 10 | $313 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jan 10 | $343 | $0 | -0% |
| Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jan 09 | $285 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Jan 09 | $293 | $0 | -0% |