Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94c1…e5ad sports 1033 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$835 (-3%) realized −$862 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%618W / 413L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$155
14 days−$1,427
30 days−$1,210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$201
crypto 21% −$1,146
world 10% −$191
other 3% −$2
politics 2% −$95
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +2.6% -7.1% 84% 50% -8.1%
≤30d 316 -27.6% -34.5% 54% 27% -15.7%
≤90d 1031 -11.2% -19.6% 60% 36% -13.2%
all 1031 -11.2% -19.6% 60% 36% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 36% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 19% -21.5%
15% -34.3% 11% -29.1%
20% -40.8% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$862
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses618 / 413
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1031 / 1033
History coverage65d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1031 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 94¢ 99¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+6%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 69¢ 100¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $80 +$4 +5%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $80 +$2 +3%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $80 −$22 -28%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $80 +$4 +5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $80 +$11 +13%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $80 +$17 +21%
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $80 +$5 +6%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $80 +$2 +3%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $81 +$32 +40%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $70 +$20 +29%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $80 +$8 +10%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $80 +$12 +14%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $70 +$7 +10%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $81 +$9 +12%
ITF Tulsa: William Manning vs Braden Shick Jun 17 $80 −$29 -36%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $80 +$17 +21%
ITF Tulsa: Luca Pow vs Lucas Marionneau Jun 17 $81 +$21 +26%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $80 +$13 +16%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill Jun 17 $80 +$12 +14%
ITF Tulsa: Marko Miladinovic vs Maximus Dussault Jun 17 $80 −$80 -99%
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Anna Lena Ebster Jun 17 $70 +$8 +12%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 17 $80 +$11 +13%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 17 $80 +$5 +6%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 17 $80 +$7 +9%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
ITF Samobor: Benjamin Thomas George vs Drazen Petrovic Jun 17 $81 +$21 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $80 +$10 +12%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $80 +$16 +20%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $80 −$50 -62%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $80 +$7 +8%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $80 +$5 +6%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 17 $81 +$2 +2%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $81 +$21 +26%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $80 +$14 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $80 +$12 +14%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $80 +$15 +18%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $80 +$16 +20%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $80 +$16 +20%
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Jun 16 $80 +$10 +12%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Andrea M'chich vs Hugo Car Jun 16 $80 +$8 +9%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $80 +$9 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $80 +$2 +2%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Jun 16 $70 +$4 +6%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $80 +$5 +6%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $80 +$12 +14%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $90 +$6 +6%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $80 −$56 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 90¢ $80 10m
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 91¢ $5 11m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 94¢ $80 42m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 100¢ $2 57m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 100¢ $84 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $91 1h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 85¢ $80 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 97¢ $80 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 58¢ $56 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 80¢ $80 1h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Daniel Rincon 100¢ $97 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 69¢ $50 1h
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 100¢ $85 1h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 82¢ $80 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 100¢ $82 1h
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 94¢ $80 2h
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin SELL Jakub Vrba 100¢ $113 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 88¢ $80 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 95¢ $100 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 100¢ $91 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 95¢ $80 2h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith SELL Jurij Rodionov 100¢ $88 2h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $92 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 77¢ $70 2h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 97¢ $80 3h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 91¢ $80 3h
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Juan Manuel La Serna 88¢ $90 3h
ITF Tulsa: William Manning vs Braden Shick SELL Braden Shick 56¢ $52 3h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 87¢ $80 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $98 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.90 · official $156.90 (match) · 2902 history records