Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94bf…1d2f sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,442 (-26%) realized −$1,319 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$432
7 days−$1,413
14 days−$1,413
30 days−$1,413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% −$291
sports 40% −$1,026
other 15% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -18.8% -26.5% 39% 39% -40.4%
≤30d 33 -18.8% -26.5% 39% 39% -40.4%
≤90d 33 -18.8% -26.5% 39% 39% -40.4%
all 33 -18.8% -26.5% 39% 39% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 39% -40.4%
10% -33.6% 33% -46.1%
15% -40.0% 21% -51.3%
20% -45.9% 18% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$102 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1,152
Realized−$1,319
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage14d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? Yes 58¢ 68¢ $630 $750 +$120 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28? No 74¢ 70¢ $420 $402 −$18 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $26 −$25 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $104 +$28 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $156 −$15 -10%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $104 −$9 -9%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $104 −$8 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $103 +$14 +14%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $104 +$65 +63%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $208 −$189 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 27? Jun 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27? Jun 28 $209 −$198 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $235 −$133 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $105 +$93 +88%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $52 +$70 +133%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $53 +$23 +43%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $104 −$69 -66%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $26 −$11 -42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 26 $52 +$42 +81%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $32 +$73 +233%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 25 $260 −$26 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $104 +$22 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $198 +$47 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $208 −$208 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $104 −$79 -76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $105 +$54 +51%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $104 +$26 +25%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $208 +$70 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 23 $352 −$352 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 23 $324 −$324 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? BUY Yes 57¢ $305 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? BUY Yes 64¢ $147 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? BUY Yes 55¢ $211 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 28? SELL No 4¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28? BUY No 73¢ $125 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 98¢ $132 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28? BUY No 74¢ $313 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 57¢ $141 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL South Africa 68¢ $95 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 74¢ $96 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 55¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 54¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 28? BUY No 54¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 72¢ $104 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 56¢ $79 6h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 74¢ $104 6h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY South Africa 69¢ $104 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $156 6h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 7¢ $19 6h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 70¢ $208 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $103 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 59¢ $104 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 84¢ $104 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,151.87 · official $1,151.87 (match) · 87 history records