Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94bf…318d world 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 41L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$33
other 10% −$1
politics 9% −$7
sports 4% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 21 +3.0% -6.8% 38% 5% -7.7%
all 63 +0.6% -9.0% 35% 2% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -8.4%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.2%
15% -25.6% 2% -25.2%
20% -32.9% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage302d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $76 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $11 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $345 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $89 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $89 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $65 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $89 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $67 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $104 +$6 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $68 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $156 −$4 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 -14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $22 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $44 +$31 +71%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $55 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $17 $0 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Nov 14 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $17 −$7 -42%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 18 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 07 $30 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Oct 04 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jeremy Allen White win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a C Sep 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $16 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $52 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $65 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $89 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $89 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $71 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $89 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $81 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $3 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $78 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $11 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $70 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $20 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $89 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $76 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $65 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 234 history records