Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
94 0x94bf…1784 other 11 markets active 6h ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+14%) realized −$6 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$11
politics 12% +$18
world 8% +$9
sports 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-71.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.6% -57.1% 0% 0% -28.3%
≤30d 2 -52.6% -57.1% 0% 0% -28.3%
≤90d 3 -68.4% -71.4% 0% 0% -38.4%
all 3 -68.4% -71.4% 0% 0% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.4% 0% -38.4%
10% -74.1% 0% -44.3%
15% -76.6% 0% -49.7%
20% -78.9% 0% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)3 / 11
History coverage56d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $140 $157 +$17 (+12%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 31¢ 57¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+87%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No 80¢ 87¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.26 · official $275.88 · 37 history records