Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94bd…6184 world 241 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,468 (-1%) realized −$3,546 · open −$3,922
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate52%90W / 83L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$5,714per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$67,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$4,280
finance 25% +$434
world 17% +$16,365
other 8% +$3,995
economics 1% +$102
sports 0% −$26
crypto 0% +$30
culture 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +12.8% +2.0% 36% 9% -10.6%
≤30d 63 +7.5% -2.7% 37% 13% -10.2%
≤90d 173 +6.1% -4.0% 52% 9% -6.5%
all 173 +6.1% -4.0% 52% 9% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 9% -6.5%
10% -13.2% 8% -15.4%
15% ← realistic here -21.6% 8% -23.6%
20% -29.3% 7% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$4,985) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$15 · ×15.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.54 per $1 lost it wins $17.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$67,281
Realized−$3,546
Unrealized−$3,922
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses90 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions31
Markets (closed)173 / 241
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$5,714
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $17,344 $17,498 +$154 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $12,050 $12,154 +$104 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $7,500 $12,045 +$4,545 (+61%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $7,614 $7,791 +$177 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $6,287 $6,346 +$58 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5,289 $5,347 +$58 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $7,500 $2,955 −$4,545 (-61%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
GTA VI released before November 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $455 $478 +$23 (+5%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 72¢ 79¢ $359 $395 +$36 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $270 $278 +$8 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $126 $221 +$95 (+75%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $252 $206 −$46 (-18%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $138 $150 +$11 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $168 $148 −$21 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $134 $121 −$14 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $53 $86 +$33 (+63%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $137 $83 −$54 (-39%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 75¢ 81¢ $75 $81 +$6 (+9%)
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? Yes 69¢ 82¢ $62 $74 +$12 (+20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $77 $67 −$11 (-14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+57%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $36 $46 +$10 (+27%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $41 $44 +$3 (+7%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 26 $50 −$52 -105%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $50 −$15 -29%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $101 +$7 +7%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $111 −$26 -23%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $101 −$22 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $1,620 −$84 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $4,985 +$15 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Nor Jun 23 $1 +$5 +513%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $7,347 +$7 +0%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Eng Jun 18 $1 +$8 +736%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $5,467 +$5 +0%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- Jun 17 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 17 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $20,388 +$21 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 16 $4 −$2 -53%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $1 +$12 +1194%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $441 −$441 -100%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $543 +$7 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $500 −$15 -3%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +401%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $39 +$19 +48%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $21 −$9 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $24 −$13 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1,538 −$1 -0%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany Jun 14 $7 −$1 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $3,572 +$20 +1%
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? Jun 12 $274 −$8 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $27 −$8 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$6 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$18 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $43 −$11 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $26 −$5 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $22 −$12 -57%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $36 −$4 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $36 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $31 +$18 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $496 +$9 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $2,186 +$2 +0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 02 $7,914 −$1 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $16,964 +$36 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 3m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 3m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 6m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 11m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 17m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 24m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 27m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 29m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 39m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 39m
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 88¢ $227 46m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 55m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 59¢ $36 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $108 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 41¢ $38 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $50 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 64¢ $47 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $469 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $156 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 88¢ $4 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 88¢ $176 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67,281.46 · official $67,281.48 (match) · 3500 history records