Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94bd…e289 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$581 (+13%) realized +$606 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%26W / 17L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day107.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$569
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 51% +3.2%
≤30d 43 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 51% +3.2%
≤90d 43 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 51% +3.2%
all 43 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 51% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 51% +3.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 42% -6.7%
15% -29.0% 28% -15.7%
20% -36.0% 19% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$32 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$606
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses26 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day107.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$22 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $132 +$155 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $62 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $228 +$52 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $127 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $108 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $127 +$45 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$57 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $126 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $309 +$56 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $257 +$164 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $433 −$109 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$26 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $231 −$49 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $203 +$65 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $233 −$34 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $128 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $204 −$40 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $211 +$274 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $60 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $1.95 · 148 history records