Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:02:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x94bd…3678
weather · 190 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$119
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses140 / 30
Open positions20
Markets (closed)170 / 190
History coverage46d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 20 History 170 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 92¢ 96¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? No 97¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 92¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 94¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? No 96¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? No 93¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? No 93¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 90¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 15? No 96¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 17? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11? No 92¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 96°F or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $48 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May May 21 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma May 20 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on May 17? May 20 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16? May 18 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 17? May 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 17? May 17 $6 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 92¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 93¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? SELL No 95¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +2.2% -7.5% 91% 5% -7.8%
≤30d 98 -3.6% -12.7% 89% 5% -7.7%
≤90d 170 +1.3% -8.4% 82% 11% -10.2%
all 170 +1.3% -8.4% 82% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 11% -10.2%
10% -17.1% 1% -18.8%
15% -25.1% 1% -26.6%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.97 · official $118.97 (match) · 443 history records