Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
94 0x94bb…77ee sports 959 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,384 (-3%) realized −$7,389 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%410W / 547L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$2,942est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$0
14 days−$26
30 days−$3,128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$9,837
other 1% −$150
world 0% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +12.5% +1.8% 46% 46% -9.5%
≤30d 254 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% -21.5%
≤90d 732 -19.4% -27.0% 41% 38% -13.9%
all 957 -15.4% -23.4% 43% 38% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 38% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 32% -21.6%
15% -37.4% 27% -29.2%
20% -43.6% 23% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$97 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$7,389
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses410 / 547
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$2,942
Open positions2
Markets (closed)957 / 959
History coverage102d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 957 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Arthur Gea 31¢ 46¢ $40 $60 +$20 (+50%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Terence Atmane 13¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $36 +$48 +134%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $41 +$94 +229%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $202 +$96 +48%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 17 $61 −$7 -11%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$48 +119%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $91 +$57 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$71 +139%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $97 −$95 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $61 −$10 -16%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $46 −$44 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $102 +$82 +80%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $61 +$209 +340%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $101 +$60 +60%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$49 +121%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$57 +139%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$25 +352%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $101 +$68 +67%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $12 +$22 +180%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $41 +$52 +129%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$51 +249%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $112 +$178 +158%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $71 +$34 +48%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $51 +$50 +98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $418 −$10 -2%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $71 +$65 +91%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $83 1m
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 13¢ $15 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $36 1h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 31¢ $41 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 91¢ $135 2h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 27¢ $41 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 46¢ $102 4h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $298 5h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 67¢ $202 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 8¢ $15 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 12¢ $21 6h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 38¢ $54 6h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 58¢ $97 6h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $101 14h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $61 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $41 14h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $122 19h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 61¢ $91 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $98 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 23h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 22¢ $72 23h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 11¢ $10 23h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 15¢ $5 23h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 93¢ $105 23h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 27¢ $20 24h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 44¢ $51 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.06 · official $60.06 (match) · 2957 history records