Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94bb…1d45 crypto 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (181 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$52,495 (-146%) realized −$50,617 · open −$1,878
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate54%133W / 112L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day180.9pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$883now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$3,143
sports 13% +$1,264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (181 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +4.9% -5.1% 49% 35% +2.4%
≤30d 245 +2.6% -7.2% 54% 32% +7.6%
≤90d 245 +2.6% -7.2% 54% 32% +7.6%
all 245 +2.6% -7.2% 54% 32% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover180.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 32% +7.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 27% -2.7%
15% -24.2% 24% -12.1%
20% -31.6% 20% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$81 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$883
Realized−$50,617
Unrealized−$1,878
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses133 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions21
Markets (closed)245 / 266
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$135
Trades / day180.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 49¢ 97¢ $103 $205 +$102 (+99%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 55¢ $104 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $104 $101 −$3 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $103 $100 −$3 (-3%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 54¢ $53 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 14¢ 2¢ $99 $10 −$89 (-89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $360 $1 −$359 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $288 $1 −$287 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $322 $1 −$321 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $211 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $157 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-99%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 +$98 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $420 +$539 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $181 +$1,327 +733%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $105 +$95 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $105 +$95 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$212 +352%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$86 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $835 +$710 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$74 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $257 −$163 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$77 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$15 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$341 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 17 $94 +$94 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $599 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $134 +$66 +49%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $103 +$137 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin Jun 16 $104 +$96 +92%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 16 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $356 −$172 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $19 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $86 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $29 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $883.00 · official $896.60 · 3500 history records