Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
94 0x94b7…768c sports 532 markets active 0h ago coverage 244d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$592 (-0%) realized −$597 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate67%354W / 174L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$788per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$2,313est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 244d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,947
world 7% −$932
other 3% +$400
crypto 2% +$344
finance 2% +$21
politics 0% +$47
tech 0% −$46
economics 0% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -2.9% -12.1% 73% 44% -7.8%
≤30d 289 -11.0% -19.4% 63% 45% -18.8%
≤90d 448 -8.5% -17.2% 66% 44% -9.4%
all 528 -6.7% -15.6% 67% 43% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 43% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 29% -18.3%
15% -31.0% 19% -26.2%
20% -37.8% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$265 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$597
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses354 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$2,313
Open positions4
Markets (closed)528 / 532
History coverage244d
Avg bet$788
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 92¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 53¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+89%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Fnatic 59¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$3 +52%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$3 +35%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $44 +$3 +7%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $18 +$1 +6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $39 +$5 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $43 +$4 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 +$3 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $111 +$3 +3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $59 +$4 +6%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $95 +$4 +4%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $54 +$5 +10%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $43 +$7 +16%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $12 +$1 +4%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$3 +35%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $74 +$12 +16%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$2 +32%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$1 -17%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $75 +$4 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$4 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +18%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $68 +$10 +14%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $29 +$1 +4%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +35%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $7 +$3 +37%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $4 −$1 -35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $18 +$2 +10%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $70 +$6 +9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $54 +$6 +12%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 +$7 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 25m
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 59¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 53¢ $3 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 65¢ $7 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 26¢ $3 4h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 74¢ $7 5h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 50¢ $10 13h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $47 13h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $19 13h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $44 13h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $44 13h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $18 14h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 88¢ $39 14h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $47 14h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $10 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $9 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $43 16h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 74¢ $7 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 21h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $110 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 21h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $5 23h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 97¢ $111 23h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 95¢ $1 23h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $63 23h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 94¢ $59 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.47 · official $26.47 (match) · 2330 history records