Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94b7…2c8e other 380 markets active 2h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%176W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$36
14 days−$651
30 days−$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$116
sports 26% +$164
crypto 15% −$56
world 4% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 31% -36.9%
≤30d 168 -46.4% -51.5% 23% 22% -59.0%
≤90d 168 -46.4% -51.5% 23% 22% -59.0%
all 376 -5.9% -14.8% 47% 44% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 44% -9.2%
10% -23.0% 39% -17.9%
15% -30.4% 36% -25.9%
20% -37.3% 28% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses176 / 200
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)376 / 380
History coverage289d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +226%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +291%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$5 -38%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +257%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 −$9 -65%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$4 +150%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Tajikistan vs. India: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 10 $11 −$10 -84%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$9 -46%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Will Jordan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -58%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$11 +211%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $12 +$6 +46%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $3 $0 -10%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -81%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 07 $11 +$3 +30%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $15 +$12 +79%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 06 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$9 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 8h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 8h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 40¢ $1 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $0 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $1 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $1 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 31h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 31h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.26 · official $9.23 (match) · 1071 history records