Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x94b1…5ced sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$518 (-35%) realized −$518 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$734
7 days+$734
14 days+$731
30 days+$730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$498
sports 15% +$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +35.1% +22.2% 83% 67% +35.4%
≤30d 9 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 44% +35.0%
≤90d 9 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 44% +35.0%
all 9 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 44% +35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 44% +35.0%
10% -16.2% 33% +22.1%
15% -24.3% 33% +10.3%
20% -31.7% 22% -0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$1 · ×117.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×147.05 per $1 lost it wins $147.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$518
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage14d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $206 +$234 +114%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $935 +$486 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $318 +$13 +4%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
France to score first vs. Norway? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 23m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $206 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $491 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 93¢ $930 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $935 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $332 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $318 32h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $6 32h
France to score first vs. Norway? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 33h
France to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 33h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $9 33h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $10 35h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 43h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 13d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records