Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:28:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
94 0x94ac…f02e sports 158 markets active 11h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-2%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%100W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$59
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% $0
sports 39% −$35
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +19.6% +8.2% 72% 72% +6.9%
≤30d 141 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 67% -6.4%
≤90d 141 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 67% -6.4%
all 158 +5.5% -4.5% 63% 63% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 63% -11.4%
10% -13.7% 61% -19.9%
15% -22.0% 53% -27.6%
20% -29.7% 34% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses100 / 58
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage202d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$3 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +150%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +47%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$4 +238%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$3 +109%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 +$4 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $13 +$8 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$2 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 −$7 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$4 +238%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +119%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $4 14h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 40¢ $1 15h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 40¢ $1 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $4 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $1 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $4 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $4 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $7 17h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 59¢ $3 17h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 29¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 66¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $4 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 42¢ $2 34h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $3 39h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $3 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $4 42h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $3 42h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 31¢ $2 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records