Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
94 0x94ac…5905 politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$12
tech 11% −$3
crypto 6% +$59
economics 6% −$2
other 3% +$2
politics 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +30.7% +18.2% 50% 50% +20.0%
≤30d 7 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 14% +0.1%
≤90d 7 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 14% +0.1%
all 7 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 14% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 14% +0.1%
10% -13.4% 14% -9.5%
15% -21.7% 14% -18.3%
20% -29.4% 14% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$6 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage9d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Yes 49¢ 70¢ $19 $27 +$8 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $92 +$59 +64%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $82 −$2 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,045 −$12 -1%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $155 −$3 -2%
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvia Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $151 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $78 5d
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 7d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $35 8d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 8d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $53 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 26¢ $13 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $11 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $4 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $2 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $80 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $108 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $0 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $0 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $78 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $78 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $78 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $78 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $113 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $80 8d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 8d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 8d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 8d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $2 8d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.58 · official $26.58 (match) · 68 history records