Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
94 0x94ac…cd94 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,284 (+29%) realized +$1,396 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%44W / 61L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$859
7 days+$919
14 days+$879
30 days+$1,763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$895
other 13% −$61
crypto 11% +$498
politics 5% −$207
economics 1% −$1
world 0% −$4
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +28.3% +16.1% 53% 53% +15.3%
≤30d 81 +46.0% +32.1% 52% 52% +36.7%
≤90d 81 +46.0% +32.1% 52% 52% +36.7%
all 105 +17.8% +6.6% 42% 40% +17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 40% +17.7%
10% -3.6% 39% +6.4%
15% -12.9% 37% -3.8%
20% -21.5% 34% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$29 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$1,396
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses44 / 61
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions8
Markets (closed)105 / 113
History coverage138d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 42¢ $41 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 48¢ 40¢ $48 $40 −$8 (-18%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$2 (-6%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 22¢ $48 $22 −$26 (-55%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 12¢ $42 $12 −$30 (-73%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$44 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 +$59 +145%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 +$11 +30%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $42 −$20 -48%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 +$54 +118%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $48 +$52 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $42 +$58 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $49 +$51 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$6 -37%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $84 −$37 -44%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $48 +$52 +110%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $57 +$23 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 +$47 +89%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $48 +$52 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$70 +237%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$51 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 +$78 +365%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $39 +$61 +158%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $42 +$58 +139%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $54 +$46 +86%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $49 +$51 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $21 +$39 +188%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $45 +$55 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$80 +388%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $40 +$60 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $16 −$3 -17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $62 +$38 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $43 +$57 +134%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$50 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$61 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $55 +$33 +59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $124 +$36 +29%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$23 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 1h
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 62¢ $45 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 22¢ $22 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 47¢ $35 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 41¢ $42 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 16h
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $41 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $42 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $49 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $42 17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $49 17h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $48 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $42 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $10 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 22¢ $21 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $26 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.99 · official $177.00 (match) · 208 history records