Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94ab…e6cc other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$11
other 14% +$7
economics 3% $0
sports 2% +$4
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 20% 20% +1.4%
≤30d 14 +11.7% +1.0% 14% 14% -3.3%
≤90d 45 +1.8% -7.9% 22% 13% -8.6%
all 56 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 11% -9.5%
10% -17.2% 11% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 9% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage613d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $60 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $9 +$7 +83%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 +$8 +129%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $4 +$3 +72%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 +$7 +86%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $9 +$3 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 29? Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 06 $16 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $30 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $15 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $22 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 22h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 24h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $7 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $21 27d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 29d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 29d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $9 32d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.84 · official $52.84 (match) · 308 history records