Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94ab…e1ac other 428 markets active 2h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-4%) realized −$53 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate73%310W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$185
14 days−$185
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$4
sports 41% −$61
crypto 16% −$8
world 1% +$4
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -50.3% -55.0% 36% 24% -32.3%
≤30d 161 -50.3% -55.0% 36% 24% -32.3%
≤90d 161 -50.3% -55.0% 36% 24% -32.3%
all 422 -1.1% -10.5% 73% 56% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 56% -14.0%
10% -19.1% 35% -22.3%
15% -26.9% 20% -29.8%
20% -34.1% 10% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses310 / 112
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)422 / 428
History coverage333d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Over 86¢ 66¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-24%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 79¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 80¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 61¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 +$2 +15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 15-21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above $4300 on September 5? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $112K on September 3? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Samsunspor vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on September 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4200 and $4300 on September 5? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta vs. Lazio end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana above $200 on September 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $112.5K on August 21 at 4PM ET? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AZ win on 2025-09-24? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta vs. Como end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2025-09-28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2025-10-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-23? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2025-09-28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC København win on 2025-10-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Malmo FF win on 2025-09-24? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-02? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-05? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2025-10-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-02? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Celtic win on 2025-10-02? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-10-09? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AZ win on 2025-09-28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-19? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above $4600 on August 22? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2025-10-09? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-04? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-19? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $7 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 88¢ $8 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $7 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 74¢ $1 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $1 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 85¢ $5 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $4 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $4 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $6 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $6 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $5 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $5 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 85¢ $10 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 9¢ $0 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 87¢ $10 12h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 82¢ $10 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $15 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 87¢ $15 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY No 80¢ $6 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.03 · official $47.03 (match) · 889 history records