Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94a7…e322 sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$97 (-4%) realized −$72 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%44W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$103
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$20
other 19% +$67
crypto 11% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +15.0% +4.1% 78% 74% +3.4%
≤30d 50 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 54% -5.6%
≤90d 73 +4.6% -5.4% 60% 55% -8.6%
all 73 +4.6% -5.4% 60% 55% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 55% -8.6%
10% -14.4% 44% -17.4%
15% -22.7% 40% -25.3%
20% -30.3% 29% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses44 / 29
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 78
History coverage87d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 47¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 24¢ $41 $16 −$25 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $35 +$6 +18%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $31 +$5 +17%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $18 +$13 +73%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $62 +$56 +89%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $57 +$5 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $55 +$7 +13%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs James McCabe Jun 22 $58 +$7 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 +$8 +16%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $71 +$31 +44%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 +$11 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $10 +$9 +92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$6 +64%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +36%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? A Jun 15 $12 −$6 -51%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$46 -70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $143 −$32 -23%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $54 −$38 -70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$14 +140%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $109 +$8 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $66 +$36 +54%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $68 +$5 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$36 +107%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $98 −$39 -40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $34 +$38 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 +$45 +291%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $35 +$5 +13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $30 +$23 +76%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $13 +$13 +97%
SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $41 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 84¢ $35 4h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 7h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $31 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $18 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL 99¢ $118 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY 51¢ $62 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can SELL Alejandro Moro Canas 100¢ $62 31h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 91¢ $57 31h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin $5 31h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw SELL Soon-Woo Kwon 100¢ $62 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 88¢ $55 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin 56¢ $10 33h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs James McCabe SELL Roman Safiullin 100¢ $65 33h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs James McCabe BUY Roman Safiullin 89¢ $58 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 42h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $50 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $26 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $71 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 55¢ $41 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 48¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 51¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 71¢ $28 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.94 · official $115.94 (match) · 184 history records