Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:19:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94a7…2162 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate84%16W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 17% -4.9%
≤30d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 17% -4.9%
≤90d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 84% 16% -5.7%
all 19 -0.5% -10.0% 84% 16% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 16% -5.7%
10% -18.6% 5% -14.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -22.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.62 per $1 lost it wins $6.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses16 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage46d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 14 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records