Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94a7…6000 sports 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$184 (+8%) realized +$184 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%55W / 50L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$75
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$31
other 35% +$326
politics 7% −$45
world 3% −$28
crypto 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.6% -5.4% 58% 58% +5.8%
≤30d 19 +4.6% -5.4% 58% 58% +5.8%
≤90d 103 +4.3% -5.7% 52% 52% +4.9%
all 105 +4.0% -5.9% 52% 52% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 52% +1.7%
10% -14.9% 52% -8.0%
15% -23.1% 51% -16.9%
20% -30.7% 47% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses55 / 50
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage96d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $20 +$14 +70%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$8 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $20 +$9 +46%
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy Jun 18 $51 +$31 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$60 +119%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $15 +$13 +86%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$20 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$21 -51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Nicolai May 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Cagliari: Matteo Berrettini vs Hubert Hurkacz May 02 $2 +$1 +93%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1 +$2 +140%
Aix en Provence: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Kimmer Coppejans May 01 $2 +$1 +85%
La Bisbal: Antonia Ruzic vs Sara Sorribes Tormo May 01 $2 +$1 +90%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Mauthausen: Roman Safiullin vs Titouan Droguet Apr 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils Apr 30 $5 −$1 -10%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Cagliari: Cristian Garin vs Nuno Borges Apr 30 $10 −$4 -44%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka Apr 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Aix en Provence: Ignacio Buse vs Francisco Comesana Apr 29 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $51 +$74 +146%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $40 +$14 +36%
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 28 $35 −$35 -99%
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Coco Gauff Apr 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 27 $25 +$17 +67%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Apr 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 27 $25 +$20 +79%
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Zeynep Sonmez Apr 26 $15 +$23 +152%
Madrid Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Corentin Moutet Apr 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $30 +$20 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 90¢ $35 22m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 52¢ $20 46m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 37¢ $10 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $20 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 23h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 42¢ $20 25h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Kyrian Jacquet 100¢ $29 25h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 68¢ $20 26h
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy SELL Elina Nepliy 81¢ $81 26h
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy BUY Elina Nepliy 49¢ $51 29h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $51 42h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $51 45h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $15 2d
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 51¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $25 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Jaime Faria 47¢ $10 2d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 49¢ $10 3d
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Hynek Barton 54¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 43d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Nicolai BUY Dalibor Svrcina 52¢ $1 45d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 46d
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records