Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x94a6…5cdc crypto 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$746 (+6%) realized +$726 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%37W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$810now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$930
7 days−$400
14 days−$420
30 days−$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$999
sports 23% +$359
other 15% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 42% -15.6%
≤30d 68 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 41% -13.3%
≤90d 80 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 39% -10.2%
all 119 -25.2% -32.3% 31% 30% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 30% -16.6%
10% -38.8% 28% -24.6%
15% -44.7% 27% -31.8%
20% -50.1% 26% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$62 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$810
Realized+$726
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses37 / 82
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions5
Markets (closed)119 / 124
History coverage146d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $300 $364 +$64 (+21%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 29¢ $400 $353 −$47 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 15¢ 32¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+116%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$182 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $208 +$268 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $208 −$200 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 −$129 -84%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $253 +$156 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $352 −$151 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $415 +$479 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$89 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$182 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $131 +$119 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$32 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $78 +$104 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $109 +$123 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$58 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$45 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$30 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$127 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$43 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $25 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $409 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $253 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 45¢ $201 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $352 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $810.42 · official $810.42 (match) · 300 history records