Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x94a4…6356
world · 33 markets active 42d ago
0.0score
−$559,485 -35%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$537,367 · open −$22,118
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52,230
Realized−$537,367
Unrealized−$22,118
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage71d
Avg bet$48,783
Trades / day46.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$8,247
30 days+$8,247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 49¢ 34¢ $71,538 $49,831 −$21,707 (-30%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1,230 $1,166 −$64 (-5%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $650 $983 +$333 (+51%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $800 $214 −$586 (-73%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $35 −$94 (-73%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $1,780 $0 −$1,780 (-100%)
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $61,984 $0 −$61,984 (-100%)
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $2,705 $0 −$2,705 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $30,105 +$8,247 +27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $169 +$255 +151%
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $61,987 −$61,984 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 01 $1,800 −$1,780 -99%
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $2,705 −$2,705 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $302,740 −$149,596 -49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 28 $24,583 −$24,436 -99%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 28 $12,115 −$12,115 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 28 $42,000 −$42,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 28 $31,923 −$31,923 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Apr 28 $110,000 −$110,000 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 28 $438,310 −$438,310 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 28 $39,984 −$38,922 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 28 $269 −$66 -24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Apr 28 $132 −$32 -24%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $39,206 +$18,037 +46%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $206,657 +$86,319 +42%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $20,960 +$7,265 +35%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 08 $565 +$351 +62%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $38,200 +$157,961 +414%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 07 $41,382 −$2,522 -6%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Apr 07 $1,620 +$740 +46%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 06 $78,232 +$29,593 +38%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 27 $3,991 +$1,100 +28%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $8,858 +$52,572 +594%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 25 $29 +$1 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 25 $21,014 +$11,634 +55%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $47,500 +$4,943 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% −$347,138
finance 22% −$214,831
politics 20% +$48,216
other 4% −$21,707
crypto 2% −$31,923
tech 2% +$8,247
economics 0% −$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $8,976 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $186 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $186 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $406 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $6,200 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $408 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,272 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $408 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $93 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $155 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $816 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $6,200 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $689 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $220 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $155 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $155 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $6,200 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $367 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 41d
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +27.4% +15.3% 100% 100% +15.3%
≤90d 23 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 35% -49.4%
all 29 +15.8% +4.8% 52% 41% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 41% -39.8%
10% -5.2% 41% -45.5%
15% ← realistic here -14.4% 31% -50.8%
20% -22.8% 17% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52,229.65 · official $52,230.65 (match) · 3500 history records