Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x94a3…26ac
other · 10 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$205 -55%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$196 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$6
Realized−$196
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 1 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$196
14 days−$196
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 24¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-58%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Yes 59¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Yes 29¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $95 +$18 +19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $20 +$8 +41%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$10 +197%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$114
world 29% −$109
sports 26% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -36.7% -42.7% 33% 33% -59.5%
≤30d 9 -36.7% -42.7% 33% 33% -59.5%
≤90d 9 -36.7% -42.7% 33% 33% -59.5%
all 9 -36.7% -42.7% 33% 33% -59.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.7% 33% -59.5%
10% -48.2% 22% -63.4%
15% -53.2% 22% -66.9%
20% -57.8% 11% -70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.16 · official $6.16 (match) · 18 history records