Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:43:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x94a0…a3ef other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$52 (+1%) realized +$53 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate61%33W / 21L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$34
sports 36% −$14
world 3% +$31
politics 3% −$3
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% +$2
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.9% +8.5% 100% 60% +0.0%
≤30d 5 +19.9% +8.5% 100% 60% +0.0%
≤90d 22 +15.5% +4.5% 68% 36% -9.0%
all 54 +6.8% -3.4% 61% 26% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 26% -9.0%
10% -12.6% 15% -17.7%
15% -21.1% 7% -25.7%
20% -28.8% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses33 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage228d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Movsar Evloev fight Alexander Volkanovski next? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? Jun 27 $21 +$2 +11%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t Jun 27 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 27 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most May 12 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? May 12 $25 +$6 +24%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference? May 03 $12 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 03 $23 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 30 $12 +$17 +138%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,505 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 22 $20 +$6 +31%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $1,559 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,475 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $108 −$5 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 01 $21 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 14? Mar 24 $17 +$1 +4%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 24 $15 +$6 +43%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15? Mar 24 $24 $0 +2%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? Mar 08 $16 $0 +2%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 08 $19 +$6 +32%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026? Mar 02 $8 +$3 +38%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 02 $19 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 24 $12 +$3 +22%
Will Mongolia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $17 $0 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Feb 24 $78 +$4 +5%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026? Feb 14 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? Feb 05 $28 −$12 -44%
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? Feb 05 $27 +$5 +20%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 05 $71 +$5 +8%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 22 $32 −$4 -12%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 18 $139 $0 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 27 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 27 $48 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 13 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 02 $23 −$6 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $87 1h
Will Movsar Evloev fight Alexander Volkanovski next? BUY Yes 93¢ $27 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 61¢ $5 45d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 90¢ $13 45d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 98¢ $45 45d
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 54d
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 90¢ $21 54d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY No 95¢ $16 57d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 57d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co BUY Yes 95¢ $23 60d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 60d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,505 60d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 66d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,505 66d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,525 66d
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 69d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,527 69d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,526 69d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t BUY Yes 83¢ $30 72d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,527 72d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,557 72d
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 76d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,559 76d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,475 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 94¢ $103 82d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,475 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 98¢ $108 84d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 97¢ $25 86d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $14 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.07 · official $142.07 (match) · 143 history records