Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
94 0x949f…43d9 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-3%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$25
weather 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 73% 55% -12.1%
≤30d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 73% 55% -12.1%
≤90d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 73% 55% -12.1%
all 11 +0.0% -9.5% 73% 55% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 55% -12.1%
10% -18.2% 36% -20.5%
15% -26.1% 36% -28.2%
20% -33.3% 27% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$109 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $125 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $92 +$55 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $303 +$56 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $211 +$147 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records