Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x949c…ab2c
crypto · 1813 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$238 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$222 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1140 / 667
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1807 / 1813
History coverage88d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 6 History 1807 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$18
14 days−$36
30 days−$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 61¢ 97¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+60%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-59%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 59¢ 13¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% −$46
sports 32% −$322
other 8% −$7
culture 1% +$126
economics 0% −$6
finance 0% +$26
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 883 -1.9% -11.2% 69% 69% -9.9%
≤30d 1342 -5.7% -14.7% 66% 66% -14.0%
≤90d 1807 -2.7% -11.9% 63% 63% -11.3%
all 1807 -2.7% -11.9% 63% 63% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 63% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 57% -19.8%
15% -28.1% 38% -27.5%
20% -35.1% 25% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.74 · official $46.72 (match) · 3500 history records