Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x949b…cb2f other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$4
other 29% −$17
sports 7% $0
finance 4% $0
culture 3% $0
politics 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 30% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 17 +31.5% +18.9% 35% 6% -8.8%
all 46 +9.2% -1.2% 26% 7% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 7% -10.6%
10% -10.6% 4% -19.1%
15% -19.3% 4% -27.0%
20% -27.2% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage272d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 +$2 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $70 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $57 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $35 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $34 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $8 +$5 +72%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $2 $0 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $43 13m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $7 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $30 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $37 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $24 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $13 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $22 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $12 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $40 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $34 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $34 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $21 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $10 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $26 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $4 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $32 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records