Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x949b…abee crypto 1251 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-4%) realized −$241 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%568W / 715L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day89.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$193
7 days−$219
14 days−$408
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$377
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -22.9% -30.2% 34% 12% -36.4%
≤30d 899 +3.2% -6.6% 44% 26% -19.8%
≤90d 1283 +4.8% -5.2% 44% 31% -17.2%
all 1283 +4.8% -5.2% 44% 31% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 31% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 27% -25.1%
15% -22.6% 21% -32.4%
20% -30.2% 18% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses568 / 715
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1283 / 1251
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day89.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.85 · official $2.38 · 3500 history records