Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x9495…3384 world 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$35 (+6%) realized +$36 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$31
other 22% −$1
politics 8% +$1
economics 6% +$1
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 15 -1.7% -11.1% 67% 20% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 20% -3.0%
10% -19.6% 7% -12.2%
15% -27.3% 7% -20.7%
20% -34.5% 7% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage614d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 88¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Udachne by August 31? Aug 15 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31? Aug 15 $50 −$26 -51%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? Jul 27 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August? Jul 25 $40 +$68 +170%
Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days? May 05 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Syria hold national elections before July? Feb 25 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Schoof resign as Netherlands PM in 2024? Jan 01 $18 +$1 +6%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? Jan 01 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Dec 11 $16 $0 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December? Dec 01 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Nov 06 $60 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Gaza before November? Nov 03 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 1h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 88¢ $50 1h
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 73d
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 73d
Will Russia capture Udachne by August 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $30 308d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $24 308d
Will Russia capture Udachne by August 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 310d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 310d
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $48 327d
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 329d
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August? BUY Yes 37¢ $40 331d
Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days? BUY No 97¢ $35 465d
Will Syria hold national elections before July? SELL No 94¢ $17 479d
Will Syria hold national elections before July? BUY No 88¢ $16 555d
Will Schoof resign as Netherlands PM in 2024? BUY No 94¢ $18 565d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 590d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December? BUY No 85¢ $15 590d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 591d
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? SELL No 42¢ $31 591d
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? BUY No 94¢ $52 594d
Israel withdraws from Gaza before November? BUY No 96¢ $28 611d
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? SELL No 40¢ $28 611d
Israel withdraws from Gaza before November? BUY No 96¢ $22 611d
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? BUY No 42¢ $60 613d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.31 · official $113.31 (match) · 32 history records