Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9493…e61e world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$14
other 31% −$11
politics 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 12 +5.2% -4.8% 67% 17% -6.8%
≤90d 13 +4.9% -5.1% 69% 15% -6.9%
all 29 -4.9% -14.0% 59% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 10% -8.9%
10% -22.2% 7% -17.6%
15% -29.7% 3% -25.6%
20% -36.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage454d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $56 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $42 +$7 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $53 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $8 +$3 +36%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $90 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $31 +$2 +5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 6? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? May 11 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 10 $3 $0 -9%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 May 06 $1 −$1 -42%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $5 +$2 +29%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 26 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the next C Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 23 $8 +$1 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $60 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $60 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 9h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 21h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $54 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $15 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $59 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 2d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $20 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $42 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $17 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $30 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 69¢ $46 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records