Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x948c…f2c2 finance 459 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,198 (-20%) realized −$1,184 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%129W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$1,112
14 days−$1,095
30 days−$1,092
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$1,469
crypto 28% −$198
sports 15% +$301
world 8% −$306
finance 4% +$59
politics 2% +$411
economics 1% −$47
tech 1% +$8
culture 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -36.3% -42.4% 19% 14% -37.2%
≤30d 77 -27.6% -34.5% 23% 19% -36.3%
≤90d 163 -30.1% -36.8% 15% 13% -41.9%
all 442 +5.1% -4.9% 29% 25% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 25% -29.3%
10% -14.0% 23% -36.1%
15% -22.3% 20% -42.3%
20% -29.9% 18% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$1,184
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses129 / 313
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions16
Markets (closed)442 / 459
History coverage228d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 73¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $900 +$9 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -66%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 17 $15 −$4 -24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $806 −$745 -92%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +158%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sandisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -25%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $159 +$53 +33%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7m
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 11m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 15m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 15m
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 15m
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 15m
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 16m
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 21m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $900 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2 BUY 30¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $25 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $61 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $806 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.07 · official $198.11 · 1195 history records