Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x948c…0cd0 crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$88 (-15%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$87
crypto 17% $0
politics 6% −$3
sports 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -6.4% -15.3% 60% 0% -25.5%
all 12 -4.9% -14.0% 33% 0% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 0% -23.7%
10% -22.2% 0% -31.0%
15% -29.7% 0% -37.7%
20% -36.6% 0% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$18 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage120d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $138 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 08 $270 −$87 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Apr 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 19? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $21 −$2 -8%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $14 −$1 -8%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $13 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $137 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $138 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $47 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $60 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $60 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $76 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records