Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x948b…a188 sports 1195 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,061 (+50%) realized +$8,071 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%565W / 488L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day126.3pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$3,107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$431
other 20% +$720
world 0% −$10
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 355 +4.9% -5.1% 52% 52% -4.7%
≤30d 1053 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 53% -9.8%
≤90d 1053 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 53% -9.8%
all 1053 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 53% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 53% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 45% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 34% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$3,107
Realized+$8,071
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses565 / 488
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions170
Markets (closed)1053 / 1195
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day126.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 170 History 1053 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 41¢ 46¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 50¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 80¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 44¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 83¢ 84¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 65¢ 66¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 100¢ $62 $80 +$18 (+28%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 84¢ 81¢ $60 $59 −$2 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $56 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 83¢ 88¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $55 $54 −$2 (-3%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score No 48¢ 100¢ $25 $52 +$27 (+106%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 38¢ $51 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $46 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 17¢ 18¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 64¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 48¢ 58¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -55%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $57 +$31 +53%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $19 +$19 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $3 +$1 +51%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$5 +28%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $12 −$9 -79%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$4 +55%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $3 +$1 +36%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +60%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $11 +$3 +27%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Jun 17 $7 +$6 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 +$17 +217%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$51 +128%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$6 +177%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $7 +$2 +32%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 44¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 46¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $52 2h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 41¢ $1 2h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 41¢ $2 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $84 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $17 2h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 72¢ $15 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 52¢ $1 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $49 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $3 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 13¢ $1 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 13¢ $1 2h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 65¢ $9 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $9 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $2 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $1 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $15 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $9 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,106.94 · official $3,107.07 (match) · 3500 history records