Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9484…a173 other 581 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$782 (+5%) realized +$729 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%125W / 446L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$202
14 days+$278
30 days+$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$371
politics 13% +$246
crypto 7% −$50
weather 6% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -29.5% -36.2% 14% 14% +50.0%
≤30d 94 -18.2% -25.9% 17% 17% +15.7%
≤90d 351 -32.2% -38.7% 12% 12% -25.4%
all 571 -3.1% -12.3% 22% 17% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 17% -7.7%
10% -20.7% 16% -16.6%
15% -28.4% 14% -24.6%
20% -35.4% 12% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$14 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized+$729
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses125 / 446
Open positions29
Markets (closed)571 / 581
History coverage147d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 28¢ 48¢ $43 $73 +$30 (+71%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 31¢ $22 $56 +$35 (+158%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $18 $34 +$16 (+88%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 19¢ $12 $30 +$18 (+153%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $28 $19 −$10 (-34%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+31%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-29%)
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $1 $8 +$6 (+436%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $8 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -161%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$9 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$11 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$15 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$132 +1268%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$105 +234%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $35 −$34 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $17 +$42 +253%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $41 +$61 +148%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 08 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $32 −$22 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $25 −$18 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $22 −$9 -43%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 03 $8 −$4 -45%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 03 $6 −$3 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $24 +$132 +554%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 11m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $30 2h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 11¢ $0 9h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.97 · official $302.97 (match) · 3030 history records